Risk indicator HRI 1: what the EU figures on crop protection do and do not say
According to the official European indicator, the risk from plant protection products in the Netherlands has fallen by three quarters since 2012. FairGrow recalculated it from actual use per crop. The figure is correct, but it mainly measures something other than you might think.
The figures for the Netherlands
Official HRI 1 from Eurostat, FairGrow’s recalculation on CBS use data, and the same recalculation without retroactive bans. All series are indexed to 2012 = 100.
Kilograms times a weight per group
The Harmonised Risk Indicator 1 (HRI 1) is laid down in Directive (EU) 2019/782. Each member state reports how many kilograms of active substance are sold each year. Every substance falls into one of four groups: low risk, regular, candidate for substitution, or not (or no longer) approved.
The kilograms are multiplied by a weight: 1 for low risk, 8 for regular, 16 for candidates for substitution and 64 for substances that are not approved. The sum is the indicator, expressed as an index with the average of 2011 to 2013 as 100.
A ban counts retroactively
Eurostat classifies every substance by its current status and recalculates the whole series with it. A substance that is banned today therefore also counts with weight 64 in 2012, when it was still approved. The German Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt) described exactly this effect in 2023.
The result: while a substance is widely used and then banned, the starting year is artificially high. Once its use disappears, the indicator drops sharply. In the Netherlands the biggest example is mancozeb: the most used substance in 2012, no longer approved since 2021. Mancozeb alone explains more than 44 of the 78 points of decline.
From use per crop, not from sales
FairGrow uses the Dutch statistics on use per crop and per active substance (CBS StatLine 85130NED, survey years 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024) and the substance status from the EU Pesticides Database. With the same rule as Eurostat we come within 2 to 4 points of the official series. The small difference arises because Eurostat uses sales for all uses and CBS uses agricultural use.
If a ban only counts from the year it takes effect, the indicator falls to 59 instead of 22. The substances that are banned today together explain the entire official decline. The substances that are still approved weigh about the same in 2024 as in 2012.
| Year | EU method on CBS use | Eurostat HRI 1 | Without retroactive bans | kg active substance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 5.8 m |
| 2016 | 96.9 | 101 | 95.2 | 5.6 m |
| 2020 | 77.1 | 79.2 | 82.2 | 5.0 m |
| 2024 | 21.8 | 23.8 | 58.8 | 3.9 m |
Index 2012 = 100. Eurostat rescaled from 2011-2013 = 100. 2024 is provisional. Sources: Eurostat aei_hri, CBS StatLine 85130NED, EU Pesticides Database.
What HRI 1 does not tell you
HRI 1 counts kilograms, not toxicity. A kilogram of sulphur weighs as much as a kilogram of a highly potent insecticide in the same group. Products that work in small amounts therefore barely count, and substances needed in large amounts, such as paraffin oil and sulphur, dominate the picture.
The indicator also says nothing about the treated area, the timing or the location of a spray. That is why FairGrow also calculates the Pesticide Load (PLI) for every spray: it looks at the effect of each substance on people, wildlife and the environment.
What FairGrow does with it
For every active substance you see how much is used in the Netherlands, on which crops and in which HRI group it falls. For a product you see how often growers use its substances on your crop. For each crop both HRI series are shown side by side, with the substances that explain the decline and the modes of action used most often.
For your own fields FairGrow compares your sprays with the average of all growers of the same crop. When a substance loses its approval, FairGrow flags it the following night.
Sources: Directive (EU) 2019/782, Eurostat aei_hri, CBS StatLine 85130NED, Umweltbundesamt (2023).
What is HRI 1?
The Harmonised Risk Indicator 1 from Directive (EU) 2019/782: kilograms of active substance sold per member state, weighted 1, 8, 16 or 64 per risk group, as an index with 2011-2013 = 100.
Why does the indicator fall so steeply?
Because substances that are banned today weigh heavily in earlier years. As soon as their use disappears, the indicator drops sharply. In the Netherlands mancozeb alone explains more than 44 of the 78 points of decline.
So nothing has changed?
It has. Use in kilograms fell by a third between 2012 and 2024, and the heaviest substances are off the market. But the substances still approved weigh about the same together as in 2012.
How does it differ from the PLI?
HRI 1 counts kilograms per group. The Pesticide Load looks at each substance’s toxicity to people and wildlife and its behaviour in the environment, and calculates per hectare and per spray.
How reliable is the recalculation?
With the same rule as Eurostat FairGrow comes within 2 to 4 points of the official series. Per crop, CBS keeps some figures confidential; years in which less than 90 percent of the kilograms can be attributed to a substance are marked less certain.
See the use on your crop
Look up your crop and see which substances Dutch growers use, how the risk develops and which modes of action are used most often.
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